Base | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | |||||
2018 | 2021 | 2025 | 2021 | 2025 | 2021 | 2025 | |
Value added (billion pesos) | |||||||
Overall economy | 12 552.916 | 12 184.934 | 13 684.996 | 12 183.778 | 13 681.667 | 12 182.637 | 13 703.952 |
Tobacco | 7.230 | 7.051 | 7.757 | 7.050 | 7.755 | 7.049 | 7.760 |
Tobacco production | 13.636 | 13.526 | 14.627 | 11.887 | 12.575 | 11.887 | 12.788 |
Production (billion pesos) | |||||||
Overall economy | 23 549.314 | 22 848.856 | 25 647.202 | 22 843.786 | 25 637.481 | 22 843.869 | 25 682.219 |
Tobacco | 7.065 | 6.890 | 7.580 | 6.890 | 7.580 | 6.890 | 7.580 |
Tobacco production | 40.972 | 40.642 | 43.949 | 35.717 | 37.785 | 35.716 | 38.425 |
Exports (billion pesos) | |||||||
Overall economy | 2070.968 | 2011.091 | 2250.374 | 2009.923 | 2248.617 | 2010.225 | 2253.898 |
Tobacco | 3.488 | 3.349 | 3.744 | 3.905 | 4.421 | 3.904 | 4.209 |
Tobacco production | 0.509 | 0.488 | 0.554 | 0.496 | 0.524 | 0.497 | 0.562 |
Imports (billion pesos) | |||||||
Overall economy | 2398.260 | 2320.101 | 2592.001 | 2319.519 | 2591.013 | 2319.780 | 2595.201 |
Tobacco | 0.376 | 0.383 | 0.403 | 0.438 | 0.453 | 0.437 | 0.312 |
Tobacco production | 1.092 | 1.120 | 1.152 | 0.849 | 0.898 | 0.847 | 0.865 |
Tax revenues (billion pesos) | |||||||
Overall economy | 4290.679 | 4158.019 | 4652.885 | 4186.353 | 4678.646 | 4181.972 | 4682.835 |
Tobacco | 69.754 | 70.976 | 74.442 | 113.919 | 120.707 | 114.001 | 119.603 |
Private consumption | |||||||
Overall economy exp. (billion pesos) | 10 478.527 | 10 149.630 | 11 351.159 | 10 105.187 | 11 280.112 | 10 094.573 | 11 502.520 |
Tobacco expenditure (billion pesos) | 141.554 | 443.616 | 1240.906 | 538.574 | 1476.468 | 538.504 | 1498.150 |
Tobacco quantity (billion units) | 1.740 | 1.728 | 1.865 | 1.509 | 1.596 | 1.509 | 1.620 |
Tobacco price (pesos per stick) | 81.367 | 256.720 | 665.415 | 356.841 | 924.927 | 356.841 | 924.927 |
Employment (in thousands) | |||||||
Overall economy | 20 554 552 | 20 876 027 | 21 991 225 | 20 869 989 | 21 983 743 | 20 869 790 | 21 992 013 |
Tobacco | 23 507 | 24 064 | 24 435 | 24 061 | 24 436 | 24 061 | 24 328 |
Tobacco production | 5908 | 6525 | 6110 | 6157 | 5806 | 6157 | 5807 |
The short term indicates effects for 2021 while the long term indicates effects for 2025. Alternative scenarios for newly raised tax revenues: scenario (1): the government increases spending on education and health; scenario (2): the government increases spending on public infrastructure investment with high marginal product of capital.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on simulation results.
CGE, computable general equilibrium.