Table 1

Price-adjusted and desired trends in adult cigarette smoking prevalence over 2022–2030 and current and target average cigarette price and excise tax (in 2021 US$) by state in the USA in 2021 and 2030

State	Smoking prevalence (%), 2021	Price-adjusted expected smoking prevalence (%), 2030	Desired average annual change (percentage point) in smoking prevalence over 2022–2030 to reach target (β_s ^d )	Price-adjusted average annual change (percentage point) (β_s ^ep )	Difference between desired and price-adjusted average annual reduction (percentage point) in smoking prevalence (β_s ^d − β_s ^ep )	Average cigarette price ($) per pack, 2021	Average cigarette price per pack, 2030 (in 2021 $)	State cigarette tax ($) per pack, 2021	State cigarette tax ($) per pack, 2030 (in 2021 $)	Average annual increase in cigarette tax per pack over 2022–2030 (in 2021 $)
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)
Alabama	19.3	14.3	−1.59	−0.56	−1.03	5.59	15.29	0.68	10.37	1.08
Alaska	16.4	12.7	−1.27	−0.41	−0.85	9.57	17.62	2.00	10.05	0.89
Arizona	13.9	6.7	−0.99	−0.80	−0.19	7.52	9.31	2.00	3.80	0.20
Arkansas	18.8	12.4	−1.53	−0.71	−0.83	6.10	13.88	1.15	8.93	0.86
California	9.2	5.2	−0.47	−0.45	−0.02	8.02	8.19	2.87	3.04	0.02
Colorado	11.9	7.7	−0.81	−0.47	−0.29	6.59	9.36	1.94	4.72	0.31
Connecticut	10.8	5.7	−0.64	−0.56	−0.08	9.91	10.66	4.35	5.11	0.08
Delaware	14.5	8.4	−1.06	−0.68	−0.38	6.89	10.48	2.10	5.68	0.40
District of Columbia	10.7	0.5	−0.63	−1.13	0.50	9.92		4.94
Florida	13.8	9.1	−0.97	−0.52	−0.45	6.18	10.46	1.34	5.62	0.48
Georgia	15.1	9.6	−1.13	−0.61	−0.51	5.27	10.11	0.37	5.21	0.54
Hawaii	11.5	11.5	−0.72	0.00	−0.72	9.50	16.32	3.20	10.02	0.76
Idaho	14.6	11.6	−1.07	−0.34	−0.73	5.68	12.56	0.57	7.45	0.76
Illinois	13.1	9.1	−0.91	−0.45	−0.45	7.65	11.94	2.98	7.27	0.48
Indiana	18.0	11.6	−1.44	−0.70	−0.74	5.76	12.72	1.00	7.96	0.77
Iowa	15.5	11.5	−1.17	−0.45	−0.72	6.33	13.08	1.36	8.12	0.75
Kansas	15.0	9.0	−1.11	−0.66	−0.45	6.27	10.49	1.29	5.51	0.47
Kentucky	22.2	15.4	−1.91	−0.75	−1.16	5.72	16.66	1.10	12.04	1.22
Louisiana	20.9	16.6	−1.77	−0.48	−1.29	5.95	18.08	1.08	13.21	1.35
Maine	16.5	11.1	−1.28	−0.59	−0.68	7.24	13.67	2.00	8.44	0.72
Maryland	11.3	4.9	−0.70	−0.71	0.01	6.96		2.00
Massachusetts	10.8	4.7	−0.64	−0.67	0.03	9.75		3.51
Michigan	17.5	11.8	−1.39	−0.63	−0.75	6.80	13.91	2.00	9.11	0.79
Minnesota	13.4	9.6	−0.93	−0.42	−0.51	8.99	13.78	3.61	8.41	0.53
Mississippi	19.1	13.2	−1.57	−0.66	−0.91	5.40	13.99	0.68	9.27	0.95
Missouri	18.4	13.0	−1.49	−0.60	−0.89	4.99	13.38	0.17	8.56	0.93
Montana	15.5	15.5	−1.17	0.00	−1.17	6.83	17.86	1.70	12.73	1.23
Nebraska	13.4	7.6	−0.93	−0.64	−0.29	5.59	8.33	0.64	3.38	0.30
Nevada	14.4	7.3	−1.04	−0.79	−0.25	6.85	9.22	1.80	4.17	0.26
New Hampshire	15.3	11.8	−1.14	−0.39	−0.75	6.73	13.80	1.78	8.86	0.79
New Jersey	12.0	6.7	−0.78	−0.59	−0.19	7.79	9.57	2.70	4.47	0.20
New Mexico	14.7	7.3	−1.07	−0.82	−0.25	6.78	9.14	2.00	4.36	0.26
New York	11.5	7.2	−0.72	−0.47	−0.25	10.51	12.86	4.35	6.70	0.26
North Carolina	17.5	12.8	−1.38	−0.52	−0.86	5.21	13.36	0.45	8.60	0.91
North Dakota	15.9	10.1	−1.22	−0.65	−0.57	5.27	10.65	0.44	5.81	0.60
Ohio	19.8	13.9	−1.65	−0.66	−0.99	6.47	15.79	1.60	10.92	1.04
Oklahoma	17.3	8.4	−1.37	−0.99	−0.38	7.19	10.77	2.03	5.61	0.40
Oregon	12.5	8.1	−0.94	−0.49	−0.34	7.53	10.74	3.33	6.54	0.36
Pennsylvania	16.0	9.6	−1.22	−0.70	−0.52	8.27	13.13	2.60	7.46	0.54
Rhode Island	11.9	4.4	−0.77	−0.83	0.07	9.75		4.25
South Carolina	16.2	9.4	−1.24	−0.75	−0.49	5.36	9.97	0.57	5.18	0.51
South Dakota	17.3	11.2	−1.37	−0.68	−0.69	6.58	13.12	1.53	8.07	0.73
Tennessee	18.9	13.5	−1.54	−0.60	−0.94	5.32	14.17	0.62	9.47	0.98
Texas	13.7	8.7	−0.97	−0.56	−0.41	6.36	10.20	1.41	5.24	0.43
Utah	7.1	3.3	−0.23	−0.43	0.19	6.92		1.70
Vermont	14.3	10.3	−1.03	−0.44	−0.59	8.73	14.27	3.08	8.62	0.62
Virginia	12.3	5.5	−0.82	−0.76	−0.05	5.64	6.13	0.60	1.09	0.05
Washington	11.3	2.5	−0.70	−0.98	0.27	8.48		3.03
West Virginia	22.7	16.8	−1.97	−0.66	−1.31	6.08	18.43	1.20	13.55	1.37
Wisconsin	14.1	6.8	−1.01	−0.81	−0.20	7.70	9.58	2.52	4.40	0.21
Wyoming	17.3	10.7	−1.37	−0.73	−0.64	5.58	11.58	0.60	6.60	0.67