Table 1

Minimum tobacco taxes and associated prices for FM cigarettes and RYO tobacco in the baseline and affordability reform scenarios in 2020 (€)

FM (95% CI)RYO (95% CI)FM to RYO price gaps (95% CI)
CountryMin tax baselineWAP baselineMin tax reformWAP reformIncrease in WAPMin tax baselineWAP baselineMin tax reformWAP reformIncrease in WAPBaselineReformChange
AT151.84.97
(4.90 to 5.04)
223.96.48
(6.20 to 6.75)
1.51
(1.32 to 1.69)
120.02.75
(2.51 to 2.97)
223.94.01
(3.69 to 4.32)
1.26
(1.09 to 1.43)
2.23
(2.01 to 2.45)
2.47
(2.14 to 2.79)
0.25
(0.038 to 0.455)
BE191.66.28
(6.17 to 6.37)
210.96.68
(6.46 to 6.89)
0.4
(0.353 to 0.452)
104.62.01
(1.76 to 2.25)
210.93.3
(2.97 to 3.62)
1.29
(1.11 to 1.47)
4.27
(4.06 to 4.50)
3.38
(3.08 to 3.69)
−0.89
(−1.0 to −0.72)
BG90.52.65
(2.64 to 2.65)
90.52.68
(2.48 to 2.87)
0
(0 to 0)
77.71.64
(1.61 to 1.66)
90.51.65
(1.48 to 1.80)
0.16
(0.134 to 0.177)
1.01
(0.696 to 1.30)
1.04
(0.821 to 1.21)
−0.16
(−0.17 to −0.13)
CZ112.73.53
(3.48 to 3.57)
153.74.39
(4.16 to 4.61)
0.86
(0.753 to 0.965)
95.62.03
(1.90 to 2.15)
153.72.73
(2.51 to 2.95)
0.7
(0.610 to 0.804)
1.5
(1.29 to 1.71)
1.66
(1.40 to 1.89)
0.15
(0.034 to 0.270)
DE163.65.89
(5.82 to 5.96)
238.17.45
(7.17 to 7.73)
1.56
(1.36 to 1.75)
71.02
(1.95 to 2.04)
238.14.03
(3.66 to 4.39)
2.03
(1.75 to 2.31)
3.89
(3.70 to 4.08)
3.42
(3.02 to 3.80)
−0.47
(−0.74 to −0.18)
DK235.17.1
(6.79 to 7.41)
235.17.11
(6.85 to 7.36)
0
(0 to 0)
180.93.63
(3.19 to 4.06)
202.13.89
(3.64 to 4.13)
0.26
(0.222 to 0.293)
3.47
(3.16 to 3.74)
3.22
(2.95 to 3.47)
−0.26
(−0.29 to −0.22)
EE138.64.07
(3.91 to 4.21)
138.64.07
(3.85 to 4.27)
0
(0 to 0)
89.60.91
(0.789 to 1.02)
131.51.42
(1.21 to 1.61)
0.51
(0.440 to 0.579)
3.16
(2.93 to 3.38)
2.65
(2.40 to 2.91)
−0.51
(−0.57 to −0.44)
EL117.53.79
(3.76 to 3.81)
123.83.92
(3.72 to 4.12)
0.13
(0.116 to 0.149)
170.03.53
(3.41 to 3.65)
170.03.53
(3.36 to 3.70)
0
(0 to 0)
0.26
(0.064 to 0.463)
0.39
(0.185 to 0.592)
0.13
(0.116 to 0.149)
ES131.54.46
(4.45 to 4.46)
163.35.13
(4.91 to 5.33)
0.66
(0.584 to 0.748)
98.82.37
(2.33 to 2.40)
163.33.15
(2.93 to 3.35)
0.78
(0.678 to 0.894)
2.09
(1.88 to 2.27)
1.98
(1.74 to 2.21)
−0.12
(−0.22 to −0.00)
FI292.37.88
(7.47 to 8.28)
292.37.89
(7.59 to 8.18)
0
(0 to 0)
180.53.03
(2.61 to 3.43)
201.73.29
(3.04 to 3.52)
0.26
(0.223 to 0.294)
4.85
(4.51 to 5.18)
4.6
(4.29 to 4.93)
−0.26
(−0.29 to −0.22)
FR314.09.08
(8.69 to 9.45)
314.09.09
(8.80 to 9.37)
0
(0 to 0)
281.05.41
(4.63 to 6.17)
281.05.41
(5.10 to 5.71)
0
(0 to 0)
3.67
(3.33 to 4.01)
3.68
(3.33 to 4.05)
0
(0 to 0)
HR111.23.62
(3.55 to 3.68)
114.13.62
(3.37 to 3.85)
0.06
(0.053 to 0.069)
107.92.26
(2.09 to 2.42)
114.12.33
(2.10 to 2.54)
0.07
(0.064 to 0.085)
1.36
(1.03 to 1.65)
1.29
(1.00 to 1.57)
−0.01
(−0.02 to −0.00)
HU103.03.69
(3.64 to 3.72)
118.04
(3.80 to 4.20)
0.31
(0.275 to 0.352)
61.81.43
(1.36 to 1.50)
118.02.12
(1.90 to 2.32)
0.68
(0.590 to 0.778)
2.26
(2.06 to 2.45)
1.89
(1.65 to 2.11)
−0.37
(−0.45 to −0.28)
IE395.011.88
(11.4 to 12.2)
395.011.89
(11.5 to 12.1)
0
(0 to 0)
379.88.03
(7.43 to 8.62)
379.88.03
(7.77 to 8.29)
0
(0 to 0)
3.85
(3.49 to 4.20)
3.85
(3.51 to 4.20)
0
(0 to 0)
IT141.34.81
(4.80 to 4.82)
182.35.67
(5.45 to 5.88)
0.86
(0.753 to 0.965)
130.02.6
(2.50 to 2.70)
182.33.24
(3.03 to 3.45)
0.63
(0.550 to 0.724)
2.21
(2.01 to 2.41)
2.43
(2.18 to 2.71)
0.22
(0.104 to 0.336)
LT108.53.41
(3.31 to 3.51)
147.44.23
(3.98 to 4.47)
0.81
(0.714 to 0.915)
78.51.61
(1.47 to 1.74)
147.42.45
(2.20 to 2.68)
0.84
(0.724 to 0.954)
1.8
(1.59 to 2.00)
1.78
(1.50 to 2.03)
−0.02
(−0.14 to 0.104)
LV114.73.58
(3.49 to 3.66)
119.53.68
(3.48 to 3.88)
0.1
(0.088 to 0.112)
75.02.32
(2.22 to 2.40)
119.52.86
(2.65 to 3.05)
0.54
(0.467 to 0.616)
1.26
(1.05 to 1.46)
0.83
(0.618 to 1.06)
−0.44
(−0.51 to −0.37)
NL238.37.12
(6.90 to 7.32)
238.37.12
(6.89 to 7.34)
0
(0 to 0)
156.03.4
(3.01 to 3.77)
207.04.02
(3.74 to 4.29)
0.62
(0.536 to 0.707)
3.72
(3.47 to 4.01)
3.1
(2.86 to 3.36)
−0.62
(−0.70 to −0.53)
PL103.93.24
(3.20 to 3.28)
130.83.81
(3.59 to 4.01)
0.56
(0.493 to 0.632)
49.01.43
(1.42 to 1.44)
130.82.43
(2.19 to 2.65)
0.99
(0.859 to 1.13)
1.81
(1.58 to 2.00)
1.38
(1.13 to 1.64)
−0.43
(−0.55 to −0.29)
PT136.84.43
(4.42 to 4.43)
148.14.67
(4.47 to 4.86)
0.24
(0.209 to 0.267)
175.03.68
(3.36 to 3.99)
175.03.68
(3.49 to 3.87)
0
(0 to 0)
0.75
(0.529 to 0.964)
0.98
(0.734 to 1.19)
0.24
(0.209 to 0.267)
RO109.03.73
(3.70 to 3.75)
119.13.83
(3.63 to 4.03)
0.21
(0.185 to 0.237)
98.13.15
(3.13 to 3.16)
119.13.67
(3.50 to 3.84)
0.25
(0.220 to 0.290)
0.58
(0.274 to 0.891)
0.16
(−0.07 to 0.380)
−0.04
(−0.07 to −0.00)
SE149.65.59
(5.50 to 5.66)
201.56.67
(6.46 to 6.87)
1.09
(0.955 to 1.22)
181.14.83
(4.67 to 4.97)
201.55.07
(4.91 to 5.23)
0.25
(0.214 to 0.282)
0.76
(0.532 to 0.976)
1.6
(1.38 to 1.78)
0.84
(0.714 to 0.962)
SI114.03.67
(3.62 to 3.71)
149.34.41
(4.19 to 4.62)
0.74
(0.648 to 0.831)
94.02.46
(2.32 to 2.58)
149.33.13
(2.90 to 3.34)
0.67
(0.581 to 0.766)
1.21
(1.00 to 1.41)
1.28
(1.03 to 1.55)
0.07
(−0.03 to 0.174)
SK100.13.25
(3.23 to 3.25)
125.53.78
(3.57 to 3.98)
0.53
(0.467 to 0.598)
76.72.54
(2.53 to 2.53)
125.53.13
(2.94 to 3.31)
0.59
(0.513 to 0.676)
0.71
(0.522 to 0.938)
0.65
(0.417 to 0.878)
−0.06
(−0.14 to 0.026)
UK330.410.19
(10.0 to 10.3)
330.410.2
(9.98 to 10.4)
0
(0 to 0)
248.66.47
(6.35 to 6.57)
248.66.47
(6.29 to 6.63)
0
(0 to 0)
3.73
(3.48 to 3.95)
3.73
(3.50 to 3.96)
0
(0 to 0)
Mean167.85.28
(5.18 to 5.36)
188.15.7
(5.57 to 5.83)
0.43
(0.37 to 0.47)
135.33.02
(2.95 to 3.08)
179.43.56
(3.44 to 3.69)
0.54
(0.46 to 0.61)
2.26
(2.15 to 2.34)
2.14
(1.99 to 2.29)
−0.11
(−1.82 to −0.03)
SD89.22.39
(2.31 to 2.47)
78.72.31
(2.25 to 2.38)
0.48
(0.41 to 0.53)
81.11.66
(1.61 to 1.70)
63.81.46
(1.43 to 1.49)
0.49
(0.42 to 0.56)
1.35
(1.27 to 1.44)
1.22
(1.15 to 1.30)
0.35
(0.32 to 0.39)
CV0.50.45
(0.44 to 0.46)
0.40.41
(0.39 to 0.41)
1.12
(1.12 to 1.12)
0.60.55
(0.53 to 0.56)
0.40.41
(0.39 to 0.42)
0.92
(0.92 to 0.92)
0.6
(0.57 to 0.63)
0.57
(0.55 to 0.59)
−3.19
(–9.90 to –1.98)
Median131.54.43
(4.20 to 4.54)
153.74.67
(4.48 to 4.84)
0.24
(0.20 to 0.26)
107.92.54
(2.43 to 2.64)
170.03.29
(3.09 to 3.46)
0.54
(0.46 to 0.61)
2.09
(1.90 to 2.20)
1.89
(1.71 to 2.05)
−0.04
(−1.44 to −0.002)
IQR2.66
(2.43 to 2.89)
3.18
(2.90 to 3.32)
0.74
(0.64 to 0.83)
1.52
(1.36 to 1.66)
1.28
(1.06 to 1.41)
0.55
(0.47 to 0.62)
2.46
(2.15 to 2.68)
1.94
(1.75 to 2.23)
0.44
(0.37 to 0.48)
IQR to median0.6
(0.55 to 0.66)
0.68
(0.61 to 0.71)
3.10
(3.10 to 3.10)
0.6
(0.52 to 0.65)
0.39
(0.32 to 0.42)
1.02
(1.02 to 1.02)
1.17
(1.02 to 1.32)
1.03
(0.93 to 1.21)
−10.01
(−9.91 to –3.05)
  • Minimum excise tax of FM cigarettes is expressed in € per 1000 FM cigarettes.

  • Minimum excise tax of RYO tobacco is expressed in € per 1000 g of fine-cut tobacco.

  • WAP of FM cigarettes is expressed in € per 20 FM cigarettes.

  • WAP of RYO tobacco is expressed in € per 20 sticks equivalent of fine-cut tobacco (ie, 14 g).

  • AT (Austria), BE (Belgium), BG (Bulgaria), CZ (Czeck Republic), DE (Germany), DK (Denmark), EE (Estonia), EL (Greece), ES (Spain), FI (Finland), FR (France), HR (Croatia), HU (Hungary), IE (Ireland), IT (Italy), LT (Lithuania), LV (Latvia), NL (Netherlands), PL (Poland), PT (Portugal), RO (Romania), SE (Sweden), SI (Slovenia), SK (Slovakia), UK (United Kingdom)

  • AT, Austria; BE, Belgium; BG, Bulgaria; CV, coefficient of variation; CZ, Czech Republic; DE, Germany; DK, Denmark; EE, Estonia; EL, Greece; ES, Spain; FI, Finland; FM, factory made; FR, France; HR, Croatia; HU, Hungary; IE, Ireland; IT, Italy; LT, Lithuania; LV, Latvia; NL, Netherlands; PL, Poland; PT, Portugal; RO, Romania; RYO, roll-your-own; SE, Sweden; SI, Slovenia; SK, Slovakia; UK, United Kingdom; WAP, weighted average price.