Tax pass-through rates by state tax level
| Cigarette prices at 25% | Cigarette prices at 50% | Cigarette prices at 75% | |
| Low-tax states (AL, CO, GA, ID, KY, LA, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, SC, TN, VA, WV, WY) | |||
| Federal and state excise taxes | 0.891*** (<0.001) | 0.922*** (<0.001) | 0.857*** (<0.001) |
| Tax*EC uptake | −0.049 (0.745) | −0.171 (0.119) | 0.074 (0.610) |
| Tax*nicotine salt evolution | −0.305 (0.195) | −0.230 (0.383) | −0.306 (0.200) |
| Pass-through rates | |||
| 2006–2011 | 0.891*** (<0.001) | 0.907*** (<0.001) | 0.960*** (<0.001) |
| 2012–2016 | 0.842*** (<0.001) | 0.751*** (<0.001) | 0.930*** (<0.001) |
| 2017 and later | 0.537† (0.093) | 0.521 (0.133) | 0.625† (0.084) |
| Medium-tax states (AR, CA, DE, FL, IA, IN, KS, NH, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, SD, TX, UT) | |||
| Federal and state excise taxes | 1.052*** (<0.001) | 1.079*** (<0.001) | 0.990*** (<0.001) |
| Tax*EC uptake | −0.034 (0.803) | −0.035 (0.772) | 0.058 (0.675) |
| Tax*nicotine salt evolution | −0.266 (0.346) | −0.304 (0.335) | −0.216 (0.503) |
| Pass-through rates | |||
| 2006–2011 | 1.052*** (<0.001) | 1.079*** (<0.001) | 0.990*** (<0.001) |
| 2012–2016 | 1.018*** (<0.001) | 1.044*** (<0.001) | 1.049*** (<0.001) |
| 2017 and later | 0.753* (0.012) | 0.740* (0.016) | 0.832* (0.015) |
| High-tax states (AK, AZ, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI) | |||
| Federal and state excise taxes | 1.010*** (<0.001) | 1.054*** (<0.001) | 1.227*** (<0.001) |
| Tax*EC uptake | 0.164 (0.210) | 0.041 (0.435) | 0.109 (0.432) |
| Tax*nicotine salt evolution | −0.030 (0.721) | 0.112† (0.059) | −0.078 (0.560) |
| Pass-through rates | |||
| 2006–2011 | 1.010*** (<0.001) | 1.054*** (<0.001) | 1.227*** (<0.001) |
| 2012–2016 | 1.174*** (<0.001) | 1.094*** (<0.001) | 1.336*** (<0.001) |
| 2017 and later | 1.145*** (<0.001) | 1.206* (0.016) | 1.258*** (<0.001) |
*P<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001.
†P<0.1.
AK, Alaska; AL, Alabama; AR, Arkansas; AZ, Arizona; CA, California; CO, Colorado; CT, Connecticut; DC, District of Columbia; DE, Delaware; EC, e-cigarette; FL, Florida; GA, Georgia; HI, Hawaii; IA, Iowa; ID, Idaho; IL, Illinois; IN, Indiana; KS, Kansas; KY, Kentucky; LA, Louisiana; MA, Massachusetts; MD, Maryland; ME, Maine; MI, Michigan; MN, Minnesota; MO, Missouri; MS, Mississippi; MT, Montana; NC, North Carolina; ND, North Dakota; NE, Nebraska; NH, New Hampshire; NJ, New Jersey; NM, New Mexico; NV, Nevada; NY, New York; OH, Ohio; OK, Oklahoma; OR, Oregon; PA, Pennsylvania; RI, Rhode Island; SC, South Carolina; SD, South Dakota; TN, Tennessee; TX, Texas; UT, Utah; VA, Virginia; VT, Vermont; WA, Washington; WI, Wisconsin; WV, West Virginia; WY, Wyoming.