Table 1

Logistic regression model* with outcome current smoking, for respondents aged 18–24 years in the 24 most populous US states:2000–2018/2019: data from TUS-CPS

Independent variablesAdjusted OR (95% CI)P value
(Intercept)0.507 (0.362 to 0.709)<0.0001
Time (survey year)2000Reference
20010.991 (0.815 to 1.206)0.9295
20020.937 (0.779 to 1.128)0.4897
20030.852 (0.709 to 1.025)0.0884
20060.812 (0.674 to 0.980)0.0297
20070.725 (0.595 to 0.884)0.0016
20100.683 (0.556 to 0.839)0.0003
20110.613 (0.489 to 0.769)<0.0001
20140.491 (0.383 to 0.630)<0.0001
20150.481 (0.385 to 0.601)<0.0001
20180.275 (0.204 to 0.371)<0.0001
20190.240 (0.185 to 0.311)<0.0001
SexMaleReference
Female0.758 (0.720 to 0.797)<0.0001
EducationAny collegeReference
No college2.114 (1.999 to 2.235)<0.0001
Race ethnicityNHWReference
NH Black0.468 (0.426 to 0.515)<0.0001
Other/multiple races1.235 (1.031 to 1.480)0.0224
API0.505 (0.429 to 0.594)<0.0001
Hispanic/Latino0.353 (0.322 to 0.388)<0.0001
Policy: expenditureState Tobacco Control Expenditure1.000 (0.999 to 1.002)0.6442
Policy: priceState Cigarette Price0.964 (0.919 to 1.010)0.1241
State indicator (fixed effect)IndianaReference
California0.580 (0.476 to 0.705)<0.0001
Florida0.642 (0.527 to 0.783)<0.0001
New Jersey0.672 (0.508 to 0.889)0.0056
Massachusetts0.707 (0.532 to 0.938)0.0167
Texas0.788 (0.644 to 0.964)0.0207
Georgia0.757 (0.590 to 0.972)0.0294
Maryland0.747 (0.568 to 0.981)0.036
Pennsylvania0.817 (0.669 to 0.998)0.048
Arizona0.814 (0.642 to 1.031)0.0876
Virginia0.824 (0.649 to 1.046)0.1117
New York0.814 (0.614 to 1.078)0.1505
Illinois0.850 (0.669 to 1.080)0.1827
Minnesota0.872 (0.698 to 1.090)0.2276
South Carolina0.863 (0.668 to 1.114)0.2562
Colorado0.909 (0.725 to 1.141)0.4109
Tennessee0.919 (0.736 to 1.149)0.4574
Michigan0.927 (0.736 to 1.167)0.5170
Washington0.921 (0.711 to 1.193)0.5301
Ohio0.939 (0.767 to 1.150)0.5403
Missouri0.960 (0.754 to 1.221)0.7357
Wisconsin1.038(0.822 to 1.310)0.7556
Alabama0.988 (0.743 to 1.313)0.9312
North Carolina0.995 (0.797 to 1.242)0.9628
  • *The model presented is the one with the lowest AIC, thus providing the best balance between the goodness of fit of the model with its complexity (see online supplemental eTable 5). State tobacco expenditure is the per cent of CDC recommended expenditure per capita for each year.25 26 State Cigarette Price is the estimated average cigarette price reported by Tax Burden on Tobacco24 adjusted to 2020 dollars by Consumer Price Index. States are ordered by difference from the reference state (Indiana) as assessed by the p value.

  • AIC, Akaike information criterion; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; TUS-CPS, Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey.