Point forecasts for annual cigarette shipments (in billions of sticks) at the end of 2025 for each of the three models used in the study and based on the trends before and after the 2020 announcement
| Linear regression | ARIMA | ETS | |
| Pre-2020 trend | 549.2 | 508.1 | 510.3 |
| Post-2020 trend | 620.6 | 615.9 | 623.2 |
ARIMA, auto regressive integrated moving average; ETS, error, trend, seasonal.