Table 2

Alternative specification to allow for non-linear price changes after the 2020 tax increase

	All	Capsules		Market segment
	All	Yes	No	Premium	Medium	Discount	Ultra-low	Illicit
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
January 2020	0.114***	0.154***	0.090**	0.151**	0.073	0.242**	0.087*	0.020
February 2020	0.208***	0.284***	0.163***	0.293***	0.173**	0.209*	0.216***	0.070
March 2020	0.245***	0.320***	0.199***	0.319***	0.311***	0.261**	0.146**	0.079
April 2020	0.276***	0.383***	0.209***	0.407***	0.346***	0.251**	0.143**	0.088
May 2020	0.209***	0.298***	0.154***	0.254***	0.270***	0.181	0.176***	0.022
June 2020	0.223***	0.245***	0.209***	0.345***	0.229***	0.137	0.180***	0.084
July 2020	0.170***	0.221***	0.140***	0.254***	0.163*	0.119	0.133*	0.120
August 2020	0.191***	0.287***	0.133**	0.255***	0.294***	0.027	0.090	0.145
September 2020	0.178***	0.221***	0.153***	0.328***	0.214**	0.046	0.081	0.073
October 2020	0.207***	0.252***	0.177***	0.353***	0.240**	0.031	0.160**	0.045
November 2020	0.180***	0.191***	0.172***	0.264***	0.238**	0.069	0.110	0.084
December 2020	0.191***	0.220***	0.173***	0.261***	0.290***	0.071	0.110	0.064
2021	0.182***	0.205***	0.167***	0.324***	0.242**	−0.030	0.115	0.064
2018	−0.034	−0.062	−0.020	−0.138***	−0.004	0.021	0.019	−0.004
Trend	0.002	0.003	0.002	−0.003	0.002	0.013**	0.006*	−0.004
Constant	2.461***	2.930***	2.179***	3.231***	2.764***	2.305***	1.815***	1.350***
Observations	5988	2231	3757	1550	1753	670	1388	627
R²	0.883	0.690	0.882	0.598	0.497	0.482	0.887	0.585

Own estimates based on Nielsen data for October 2018–September 2021. Each column corresponds to a model fitted separately. Fixed effects by product, ***p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05.